Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 2.618852 3.068341 3.566850 4.160033 4.845959 5.613511 6.536861
2025-11-09 1.800934 2.367161 3.064924 3.984969 5.162951 6.617126 8.544722
2025-11-16 1.347371 1.950377 2.761686 3.926095 5.546362 7.711840 10.814545
2025-11-23 1.057138 1.662547 2.540573 3.894649 5.915359 8.800787 13.209920
2025-11-30 0.904177 1.527794 2.492612 4.074897 6.580660 10.363994 16.465648
2025-12-07 0.756693 1.365348 2.364101 4.095788 6.988618 11.579673 19.347882
2025-12-14 0.637053 1.221449 2.233807 4.080914 7.320375 12.699046 22.202208
2025-12-21 0.546018 1.107780 2.131072 4.088040 7.676808 13.886189 25.296986
2025-12-28 0.514445 1.097262 2.206994 4.418724 8.635919 16.198901 30.578743
2026-01-04 0.459226 1.029203 2.162955 4.516075 9.177196 17.833207 34.844453
2026-01-11 0.415056 0.974939 2.135567 4.638215 9.775869 19.632888 39.609710
2026-01-18 0.369087 0.907745 2.070281 4.671803 10.200373 21.146000 43.995003
2026-01-25 0.313726 0.810206 1.928400 4.530548 10.264993 21.997675 47.257059
2026-02-01 0.260838 0.707858 1.759038 4.303597 10.119219 22.415394 49.714193
2026-02-08 0.226095 0.642927 1.663652 4.227329 10.288993 23.502288 53.683674
2026-02-15 0.198663 0.590991 1.589895 4.189043 10.537044 24.781882 58.209580
2026-02-22 0.186597 0.577993 1.609826 4.380480 11.344712 27.378415 65.910116
2026-03-01 0.167881 0.542224 1.565168 4.402251 11.746586 29.104196 71.841175
2026-03-08 0.149921 0.504742 1.509403 4.386110 12.051752 30.639881 77.504365
2026-03-15 0.135085 0.473500 1.465227 4.393664 12.417424 32.358759 83.787810
2026-03-22 0.133656 0.484520 1.542567 4.747664 13.734036 36.525920 96.414154
2026-03-29 0.123993 0.466453 1.532119 4.851859 14.396697 39.146479 105.512545
2026-04-05 0.115972 0.452221 1.530808 4.982583 15.149737 42.078002 115.700719